Polymarket appointed Mike Eidlin as its Japan representative and plans to lobby regulators and lawmakers for authorization to operate prediction markets locally, targeting approval by 2030. The company reached $10 billion in monthly trading volume in March 2026 and reported 678,342 users in April, competing with Kalshi. Japan is viewed as a large, underused opportunity due to a strong retail investor base and demand for speculative products. Prediction markets currently occupy a legal grey area in Japan, with no explicit authorization or outright ban. Formal operation at scale would require a new regulatory category or legislative change, with approval depending on the Financial Services Agency classifying prediction markets as a distinct product class under local law.
"Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market that hit its first $10 billion monthly trading volume in March 2026, is making a calculated push into one of Asia's largest and most regulated financial markets. The 2030 approval timeline is deliberate because Japan's regulatory process is, by any measure, extremely meticulous, and any new product categories, especially those tied to decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure and crypto-collateralized markets, typically require ext"
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