K33 Research Says Bitcoin's $60K Bottom Was Bear Market's Maximum Drawdown

Bitcoin’s 2026 bear market maximum drawdown is projected around the February low near $60,000. Funding rates have stayed negative for 81 consecutive days, indicating prolonged bearish positioning in perpetual swap markets. This sentiment is described as uniquely pessimistic and potentially limits further downside by exhausting near-term selling pressure. K33 expects bitcoin to consolidate between $60,000 and $75,000 with slow grind dynamics rather than an 80%+ capitulation event. The scenario implies a roughly 52% decline from the October 6, 2025 all-time high of $126,272. Institutional access via regulated products is cited as reducing extreme leverage feedback loops, while long-term holders appear closer to selling exhaustion.

"The firm's key evidence sits in derivatives data as bitcoin's 30-day average funding rate has remained negative for 81 consecutive days, an unusually prolonged stretch of bearish positioning in perpetual swap markets. Lunde describes this as a uniquely pessimistic sentiment, which paradoxically stands to limit further downside by exhausting near-term selling pressure before a sustained decline can develop."

"K33's base case projects bitcoin consolidating within a range of $60,000 to $75,000, with slow grind dynamics rather than a sharp capitulation event. The maximum drawdown in this scenario sits at the February low of approximately $60,000, a roughly 52% decline from the all-time high of $126,272 reached on October 6, 2025."

"Lunde argued that the conditions defining the 2026 bear market make an 80%-plus collapse (akin to those seen in 2018 and 2022) structurally unlikely. She added that the 2025 bull market was less aggressive than prior cycles, and a proportionally less severe bear market will follow as a consequence."

"The key structural difference K33 points to is the role of institutional capital. With access to bitcoin now largely routed through regulated products, the extreme leverage feedback loops that drove prior capitulations are harder to sustain at scale. Long-term holders also appear to be approaching selling exhaustion, a metric that in previous cycles has preceded a"

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