"The bitcoin price has left many investors puzzled in recent weeks. Despite significant accumulation by institutions and treasury companies, the bitcoin price has remained stuck in sideways action. Is this the result of "paper Bitcoin," or are we simply witnessing the push and pull of supply and demand? In my latest video analysis, Paper Bitcoin Ruining The Bitcoin Bull Market, I dig into on-chain data, treasury holdings, and derivatives activity to separate fact from conspiracy and explain what's really driving the bitcoin price."
"For perspective, total treasury holdings now sit just shy of 1 million Bitcoin. Yet, despite these flows, the bitcoin price has flatlined after briefly touching new all-time highs above $120,000 before retracing to $108,000. Why isn't this institutional demand reflected in the bitcoin price? The answer lies in profit-taking by long-term holders. Since July, more than 450,000 BTC have moved from long-term wallets into the hands of newer, short-term market participants."
"On-chain data shows clear selling from cohorts holding Bitcoin for four to ten years. These investors accumulated at far lower prices and are now realizing profits as the bitcoin price pushes into record territory. This pattern is nothing new. Historically, long-term holders reduce exposure as retail and institutions bid the bitcoin price higher, only to re-accumulate once the market cools. Current HODL waves data indicates that selling pressure from this group is accelerating, adding weight to the sideways chop we've seen in the bitcoin price."
ETFs and treasury companies accumulated roughly 200,000 BTC in recent months, bringing total treasury holdings to just under one million Bitcoin. The bitcoin price briefly exceeded $120,000 before retracing to $108,000 and then moving sideways. Since July, over 450,000 BTC transferred from long-term wallets to newer, short-term participants, reflecting profit-taking by holders who amassed coins four to ten years ago. HODL waves data show accelerating selling pressure from these cohorts. Increased futures and options activity has added further drag on price action. Net effect: institutional inflows have been largely offset by distribution and derivatives-related dynamics.
Read at Bitcoin Magazine
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