Can Ripple (XRP) Hit Its $3.65 Cycle High by the End of 2026?

"After recording its first green month in April, the question now is whether XRP can sustain that momentum in May and push all the way back to $3.65 by December-a 152% rally in seven months."

"Bull Case: $3.50-$3.65 Institutions that have been waiting on the legal green light deploy capital, growing banking activity on the XRP Ledger drives real demand, and XRP rides the momentum back toward its cycle high. We believe a $3.65 retest is achievable in this scenario, but it needs the bill to pass, inflows to accelerate, and macro conditions to cooperate simultaneously."

"Base Case: $2.50-$3.00 Under our base case, the CLARITY Act passes but gets delayed by Senate reconciliation until August or September. ETF inflows stay positive with the occasional outflows, and XRP grinds higher through Q3 without the sharp acceleration the bull case requires."

"Bear Case: $1.00-$1.30 In our bear forecast, we assume the CLARITY Act will miss the May 21 Memorial Day recess deadline and get pushed until 2027 or later. If that happens, institutions will pull back from committing capital, leading XRP to break below its $1.28 support floor and drift back toward $1. This scenario only requires the bill stalling, which Senator Lummis has warned could push XRP's regulatory clarity past 2030."

XRP recorded its first green month in April and faces the challenge of sustaining momentum through May and beyond. The token began 2026 near $1.80 after a decline from a July 2025 cycle high of $3.65. A brief January recovery lifted XRP to about $2.41, supported by optimism tied to an incoming administration and expectations of regulatory progress. XRP is currently trading around $1.43 to $1.45. Returning to $3.65 would require a 152% gain, or roughly a $2.20 increase, within the remaining seven months of 2026. Outcomes are framed as bull, base, and bear cases driven primarily by timing and passage of the CLARITY Act, ETF inflows, and macro conditions.

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