"Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, crypto traders could give thanks that Bitcoin's price was clawing back major losses. But then Bitcoin plummeted again on Monday following the break. Now bettors on Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, have knocked down its chance of crossing $100,000 by the end of the year-giving it around a 24% chance of hitting that mark compared to 60% at the outset of the holiday."
"Kalshi and other prediction market forums like Polymarket and Robinhood are viewed as highly accurate indications for a wide variety of future events, though the odds they post are constantly in flux. When it comes to crypto, other bets on Kalshi reflect a bearish outlook for the sector. This includes 63% of bettors wagering that Bitcoin will dip below $80,000 this year. Even longer term predictions about the major cryptocurrency are muted, as 82% of bettors predict Bitcoin will not be above $200k by 2027."
"Kalshi is one of the major players in prediction markets, along with its rival, Polymarket. Prediction markets gained popularity after the run-up to last year's U.S. presidential election, when Kalshi pointed to a Trump win in contrast to many highly regarded polls. Since then, Polymarket is seeking a valuation of up to $15 billion, while Kalshi's is up to $11 billion."
Kalshi bettors cut the chance Bitcoin tops $100,000 by year-end from about 60% to roughly 24% after a renewed price drop. Sixty-three percent of bettors wager Bitcoin will dip below $80,000 this year, and 82% predict Bitcoin will not exceed $200,000 by 2027. Bitcoin traded around $84,000, down about 8% in 24 hours and roughly 33% from its two-month high near $126,000. Ethereum and Solana fell about 9% and 10% to approximately $125 and $2,752 respectively. Kalshi and Polymarket are major prediction-market platforms valued around $11 billion and up to $15 billion. Japanese 2-year bond yield hit a 17-year high, adding macro pressure.
Read at Fortune
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