"Over 13 years, Bitcoin has ended April with a positive price nine times, putting its win rate at 69%. Bitcoin's average return in April currently sits at 10.7%, but this figure is hugely inflated by high gains of over 28% in 2013, 2018, 2019, and 2020."
"This April is different because external macroeconomic factors are driving market performance in ways previous Aprils never experienced. The U.S. and Iran conflict has kept oil prices above $100 since early March, and the Federal Reserve raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% in response."
"Expectations for rate cuts have faded, replaced by projections that rates will stay elevated well into Q2 2026. These are all macro conditions that typically tighten liquidity and limit price appreciation."
Bitcoin has lost about 23% in value in Q1 2026, marking its first back-to-back quarterly losses since 2022. Historically, April has been a strong month for Bitcoin, with a 69% win rate since 2013. However, this year presents unique challenges due to external macroeconomic factors, including high oil prices and a raised inflation forecast by the Federal Reserve. These conditions may limit Bitcoin's price appreciation, contrasting with previous years where April saw significant gains.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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