"Bitcoin price long-term trajectory has been extraordinary. In just over a decade, it has risen from a few hundred dollars to more than $100,000, creating one of the most dramatic wealth transfers in modern history. But the question now dominating investors' minds is whether BTC can extend this exponential growth, potentially even to seven figures. And if so, when? Bitcoin Price Fundamental Value"
"Few models have generated as much controversy as Stock-to-Flow. Once hailed as the roadmap for Bitcoin's price, it fell out of favor after failing to predict post-halving performance in recent cycles. But while the model itself may no longer hold predictive power, its core premise, that Bitcoin's programmed scarcity drives long-term value, remains valid. Rather than relying on rigid mathematical projections, a more grounded approach is to look at Bitcoin's production cost: the estimated electrical expense required to mine one BTC."
"Based on current efficiency trends and average energy prices, the production cost is expected to rise to around $175,000 per BTC by early 2028, following the next halving. This level has aligned closely with past cycle lows, suggesting that if Bitcoin remains above its cost basis, its fair valuation could approach $200,000 by that time. Extending this trend, the projected cost to mine one BTC could reach approximately $675,000 by 2032, assuming moderate improvements in miner efficiency and no dramatic changes in Global energy costs."
Bitcoin has climbed from a few hundred dollars to above $100,000 in slightly over a decade, causing a major wealth transfer. The Stock-to-Flow model lost predictive power, but programmed scarcity from halvings still underpins long-term value. Mining production cost, driven by electricity and efficiency, has historically set a structural price floor and doubles effectively with each halving. Production cost is projected near $175,000 by early 2028 and roughly $675,000 by 2032 under current assumptions. Historical peak multiples of production cost have declined across cycles; a continued decline to a 1.5x multiple could place a future peak near $1 million.
Read at Bitcoin Magazine
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