Bitcoin is Flat, Ethereum Is Weak, and Solana Pops Big, While China and The White House Loom Large (BTC, ETH, SOL)

"BTC continues to trade rangebound, even after an exciting rally that occurred on Tuesday. The war of words on X continues between the White House and China, with the Trump team nuking the rally on Tuesday after BTC hit a high of $114,180 intraday. Options markets are displaying short term steepness in term structure showing an increase in near-term volatility, with skew pushing negative as market participants position themselves for protection while price direction remains uncertain."

"BTC is trading above its 200 day SMA of roughly $108,300, but well below critical levels in the 50 and 100 day SMA's. With Microstrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) announcing much smaller purchases of bitcoin than in the past, and BTC flows on the lower side this week so far (roughly $340m through EOD Wednesday), the market needs a catalyst to decide more directional movement. Back to the crab market we go, for now."

"Ethereum is showing more weakness in the current market structure than Bitcoin, with implied volatility falling below realized volatility, eliminating positive carry for options traders and showing that the market expects the Ether price to grind downwards in the near term. This does offer interesting trade structures in derivatives for those sophisticated enough to take advantage of options and futures markets, with those who view the volatility at an attractive enough level to take some long exposure."

Bitcoin is rangebound after a Tuesday rally and saw intraday highs near $114,180 amid geopolitical noise on X. Options term structure shows near-term steepness with negative skew as participants seek protection while price direction stays uncertain. BTC trades above the 200-day SMA near $108,300 but remains below the 50- and 100-day SMAs. MicroStrategy announced smaller bitcoin buys and weekly BTC flows are modest (~$340m through EOD Wednesday), leaving the market in need of a catalyst. Ethereum shows relative weakness as implied volatility falls below realized, reducing option carry and creating selective derivatives opportunities. Solana is outperforming, up about 5%, staying above its 200-day moving average with renewed on-chain ecosystem activity and increased token launch platform engagement.

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