"The research and brokerage firm argued that the recent drawdown reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage to bitcoin's network or investment thesis. "What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history," the analysts wrote, adding that none of the typical catalysts behind past crypto winters have emerged. Bernstein said previous bear markets were driven by major failures, hidden leverage, or systemic breakdowns. This cycle, the firm sees no comparable blowups or widespread insolvencies."
"Instead, analysts pointed to growing institutional alignment as a key difference. They cited support from a pro-bitcoin U.S. political environment, expanding adoption of spot BTC ETFs, rising corporate treasury participation, and continued involvement from large asset managers. The firm argued that bitcoin's broader adoption story remains intact despite market weakness. Bernstein also addressed criticism that bitcoin has lagged gold during the latest period of macro volatility. They said BTC continues to trade primarily as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven."
Bernstein analysts reiterated a bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin and maintained a $150,000 price target by end-2026. The firm characterized the current price downturn as a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage to bitcoin’s network or investment thesis, calling it the weakest bear case in bitcoin history. Bernstein said prior bear markets were driven by failures, hidden leverage, or systemic breakdowns, none of which appeared in this cycle. Analysts highlighted growing institutional alignment, including pro-bitcoin U.S. politics, spot BTC ETF adoption, corporate treasury involvement, and large asset manager participation. Bernstein expects ETF infrastructure and corporate capital channels to absorb renewed liquidity if conditions ease.
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