Chikungunya virus is heading for Europe, scientists warn

Chikungunya virus is found mainly in tropical and subtropical regions across Central and South America, the Caribbean, Indian Ocean islands, South and Southeast Asia, and Africa. The virus is spread by Aedes mosquitoes and can cause prolonged joint pain and disability, though it is rarely fatal. Climate change can alter where mosquito vectors survive, affecting chikungunya spread. The Asian tiger mosquito is predicted to account for more than 70% of the virus’s potential distribution because it tolerates cooler conditions better than the yellow fever mosquito. As suitable mosquitoes establish in new areas, local transmission becomes more likely. Risk zones currently include 139 countries or regions, and climate models project further expansion into temperate regions, including northeastern North America, central Europe, and East Asia.

"Climate change affects chikungunya mainly by changing where its mosquito vectors can live. In our study, the Asian tiger mosquito was especially important, explaining more than 70% of the predicted distribution of the virus. Because this mosquito can tolerate cooler conditions better than the yellow fever mosquito, warming may allow it to establish in places that used to be too cold. When suitable mosquitoes become established, the chance of local chikungunya transmission increases."

"At present, 139 countries or regions - accounting for 21.3% of the world's land area - are risk zones for the chikungunya virus. But we show that under climate change models, the virus will further expand northward into temperate regions, especially northeastern North America, central Europe, and East Asia."

"Chikungunya is a disease dating back to 1952, which is caused by a virus spread by Aedes mosquitos. Despite there being approximately 33,000 cases so far this year, Chikungunya is one of the most neglected tropical diseases in the world, according to the World Health Organisation. Currently, most disease outbreaks occur in tropical and subtropical regions."

"While the virus is rarely fatal, it can cause prolonged joint pain and disability - with the word 'Chikungunya' meaning 'to become contorted' in the Kimakonde language."

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