"The Penguins have won 54.2% of their games this season when favored on the moneyline (13-11). In games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -114 or shorter, Pittsburgh has an 11-10 record (winning 52.4% of its games). The implied moneyline probability for this matchup gives the Penguins a 53.3% chance to win. Pittsburgh and its opponent have combined to score more than 6.5 goals in 27 of 53 games this season."
"The Senators have been an underdog in 16 games this season, and won six (37.5%). Ottawa has entered 16 games this season as an underdog by -106 or more and is 6-10 in those contests. The Senators have a 51.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline. Ottawa's games this season have had over 6.5 goals 29 of 54 times."
"We anticipate the Penguins (-114 on the moneyline) to beat the Senators (-106 on the moneyline). For the over/under, we pick the under at 6.5 goals."
Pittsburgh is a narrow moneyline favorite at -114, carrying a 53.3% implied win probability and a 54.2% success rate when favored this season (13-11). The Penguins are 11-10 as moneyline favorites at -114 or shorter. Ottawa is listed at -106, has been an underdog in 16 games this season and won six, and holds a 51.5% implied win probability here. Both teams have frequently been part of games over 6.5 goals (Pittsburgh: 27 of 53; Ottawa: 29 of 54). Key injuries affect both rosters, and the projected pick is Pittsburgh on the moneyline with the total under 6.5 goals.
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