"The Cubs are technically still on the road even though they're back in Chicago, but the South Side may not be quite as hospitable as it has been recently. Once a laughingstock due to their widespread organizational incompetence, the White Sox are finally looking like a real baseball team again. They have won five straight to get over .500, making this the first time since 2008 (in a non-COVID season) that these teams have met when both have winning records."
"While the Cubs are favored, they come into this one having scored five total runs during a 1-4 stretch that followed 10 consecutive wins. They've only given up 18 runs (3.6 per game) over that span, but Edward Cabrera was responsible for five of them. That broke his streak of five consecutive games with three earned runs allowed, and it may have brought some of his issues this season to a head."
"Cabrera's fastball velocity has been down all season, and it's not just a matter of cooler temps at Wrigley in the early part of the season. To wit, his highest average velo came when he sat 96.5 mph on March 30 at home against the Angels. Of course, that was actually a very warm day, so it doesn't really fit either narrative. He's only gotten to 96 in one other game, also at home on April 23 against the Phillies. Cabrera was just at 95.2 mph in Arlington, which is both warm and in a domed ballpark."
"His sinker has been a bigger issue than the four-seam because he throws it far more often, but he's also had trouble with the shape and effectiveness of his breaking balls. The curveball has seen a big drop in spin efficiency for some reason, possibly because Cabrera is throwing from a lower arm slot than ever before. I'm sure the Cubs are well aware of what's going on, so I anticipate some little tweaks as the season goes along. On a positive note, his strikeout rate has been up over the last three starts."
The Cubs remain technically on the road despite being back in Chicago, where the South Side may be less welcoming than recently. The White Sox have improved after years of poor performance, winning five straight to reach above .500. Both teams have winning records for the first time since 2008 in a non-COVID season. The Cubs enter with offensive struggles, scoring only five runs during a 1-4 stretch after 10 consecutive wins. Their pitching has allowed 18 runs over that span, with Edward Cabrera responsible for five. Cabrera’s fastball velocity has declined, and his sinker and breaking balls have shown reduced effectiveness, including a drop in curveball spin efficiency. His strikeout rate has risen recently, and maintaining a lower walk rate could help.
Read at Cubsinsider
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