"The Capitals have won 56.8% of their games this season when they've been a moneyline favorite (25-19). Washington has gone 1-2 in games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -191 or shorter (33.3% win percentage). The implied moneyline probability for this matchup gives the Capitals a 65.6% chance to win."
"The Flames have been made an underdog 49 times this season, and won 17, or 34.7%, of those games. Calgary has a record of 2-5 in games when bookmakers have them as underdogs of at least +158 on the moneyline. The Flames have a 38.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline."
"We anticipate the Capitals (-191 on the moneyline) to topple the Flames (+158 on the moneyline). Based on our analysis of this matchup's historical data, we prefer the under at 6 goals."
The Capitals face the Flames at Capital One Arena with Washington heavily favored at -191 moneyline odds, implying a 65.6% win probability. The Capitals have won 56.8% of games as moneyline favorites this season but only 33.3% when odds are -191 or shorter. Calgary, appearing as an underdog 49 times this season, has won just 34.7% of those games and holds a 2-5 record at +158 or longer odds. The Flames are significantly hampered by injuries, including Jonathan Huberdeau (out for season) and Samuel Honzek (out). Analysis suggests the Capitals will prevail with the under at 6 goals being the preferred pick.
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