Australian Grand Prix: Does winning first race of F1's new era guarantee title?

"With help from ESPN Global Research, we've looked at nine other previous major regulation changes, since 1961. In those nine seasons, only four drivers who won the first race of a new era went on to claim the title that year, and on just three occasions did the eventual constructors' champions also win the opening race."

"Back in 1961, for one of the most revolutionary regulation changes with a regulated engine and maximum car weight introduced, Stirling Moss won the opening race of the season for Lotus Climax, but he would finish the season third in the standings and Lotus second. Phil Hill and Ferrari came on top."

"Then, when flat-bottomed F1 cars were debuted in 1983 after the first -- but not the last -- 'ground effect' era, Nelson Piquet won the opening race, and indeed the title. But his team, Brabham, were only third in the constructors' standings, with Ferrari eventual winners of that crown."

Historically, winning the opening race of a new Formula 1 rules era does not guarantee championship success. Analysis of nine previous major regulation changes since 1961 reveals that only four drivers who won the first race went on to claim the title that year, and only three occasions saw the eventual constructors' champions also win the opening race. The combination of both the winning driver and team claiming both championships has occurred only twice in F1 history. Examples include 1961 when Stirling Moss won for Lotus but finished third in the standings, and 1983 when Nelson Piquet won the opening race and the title but Brabham finished third in the constructors' championship. This pattern demonstrates the unpredictability of new regulation eras in Formula 1.

Read at ESPN.com