ARK estimates that nearly 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029... The charts below break down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and enterprise value by business line.
We conservatively assumed that Tesla does not sell Optimus externally in our model, and that Optimus manufacturing savings modestly impact Tesla's costs in single digit percentages over the next five years.
Over the next decade, we expect Tesla to become a leading manufacturer and service provider of robots that move through physical space, leveraging learnings from robotaxis... Tesla expects Optimus to be completing useful factory tasks by year end.
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