"Many CAQ supporters have long been sympathetic to sovereignty but were willing to set that preference aside to back a party that prioritized Quebec's autonomy within Canada rather than outright independence. With the sovereignty question now back on the front burner, some of those voters are back in play for the PQ. The data, however, suggests that the overall base of support for sovereignty itself has not grown significantly: it remains solid but still falls well short of a majority of Quebec voters."
"In fact, resistance to sovereignty runs deeper than those numbers alone suggest. When voters are asked not only about sovereignty as an abstract question but about the prospect of holding a referendum during the first mandate of a PQ government, opposition hardens sharply and spreads across virtually every demographic group. Today, we release the second part of the latest Quebec poll from Pallas Data, commissioned by 338Canada and The Walrus. The survey was conducted January 9-10, 2026, among a random sample of 1,128 Quebec voters."
Polls in recent years have consistently shown a majority of Quebec voters would oppose a sovereignty referendum. Parti Québécois popularity rose since 2023 after leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon pledged a third sovereignty referendum, coinciding with Coalition Avenir Québec's decline. Many CAQ supporters sympathize with sovereignty but preferred a party prioritizing Quebec autonomy within Canada; some of those voters returned to the PQ. Overall support for sovereignty has not grown significantly and remains below a majority. Opposition intensifies when a referendum is proposed during a PQ government's first mandate. A Pallas Data poll (Jan 9–10, 2026; n=1,128) finds 54% against, 35% in favour, 10% unsure.
Read at The Walrus
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