"With the recent receipt of various postponed tax payments, the impact of recent economic weakness and last year's financial market distress on state revenues has become clearer," the LAO authors said in a preliminary report.
LAO analysts Brian Uhler, Chas Alamo, and economist Seth Kerstein estimated that 2022-23 revenues are $26 billion under projections and "our updated revenue outlook anticipates collections to come in $58 billion below Budget Act projections across 2022-23 to 2024-25."
"The number of unemployed workers in California has risen nearly 200,000 since the summer of 2022," they added. "This has resulted in a jump in the state's unemployment rate from 3.8 percent to 4.8 percent. Similarly, inflation-adjusted incomes posted five straight quarters of year-over-year declines from the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter 2023."
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