California birth rate declines to historic low as women delay childbearing

"California's birth rate has hit a record low, a historic baby bust in a state with the world's fourth largest economy, dipping below the birth rate of 1906, when San Francisco was recovering from the great earthquake that destroyed most of the city, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. RELATED: High cost of living forces residents to delay medical procedures, having kids With just 10.2 births per 1,000 population through 2023, the rate has dropped more than half since the World War II baby boom in the late 1940s and '50s of 24.8, and nearly half since 1991, when the birth rate was 20."

"What is causing the decline in birth rates is honestly not entirely clear, said Eric McGhee, senior fellow at the PPIC and co-author of a forthcoming paper on the topic. However, the reality is that birth rates are declining from all over the country. California's total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime, also remains at historic lows at 1.48, dropping from 2.5 in 2008. Unlike birth rates that provide a broad view of population growth, fertility rates indicate more focused trends on women's reproductive patterns and potential family size."

"Fertility rates are also dropping in every single state. In 2022, the most recent year the PPIC has national numbers, South Dakota had the highest fertility rate and Vermont the lowest. Every state's fertility rate is now below 2.1, a number considered the replacement rate needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next. There are numerous factors contributing to the declines, from economic to social. In California, especially, he said, the drop has been primarily among Latinos having fewer children. The evolution of women's roles in the family and the workplace has also factored significantly."

California recorded 10.2 births per 1,000 population in 2023, marking a historic low below 1906 levels. The state's total fertility rate stands at 1.48, down from 2.5 in 2008, and national fertility rates have fallen below the replacement threshold of 2.1 in every state. The decline represents a long-term shift since the World War II baby boom and a near-halving since 1991. Multiple factors contribute to the drop, including economic and social pressures, fewer births among Latinos in California, and changing roles for women in families and the workforce, with past recessions corresponding to declines.

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