Will Rivian (RIVN) Stock Hit $50 by 2030?

"If you missed out on the multi-decade returns of Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA) stock, maybe you'll get a second chance with electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Rivian Automotive ( NASDAQ:RIVN). For the next four to five years, some loyal RIVN stockholders hope to achieve Tesla-like growth. In the most optimistic scenario, Rivian stock would stage a spectacular comeback and rally to $50 by 2030. However, in a more pessimistic scenario, Rivian could run out of money next year and file for bankruptcy. No one knows for sure whether RIVN stock will become a hero or a zero by 2030. Still, you could have a huge winner on your hands with a share position in Rivian, so let's see what's under the hood with this fascinating EV producer."

"Whether Rivian stock is "dead money" or the "comeback kid" largely depends on your time frame. If your lookback period is five years, then the "dead money" theory seems to hold up. Alarmingly, RIVN stock has lost 80% of its value during the past five years. But then, the picture looks much brighter if we zoom in on the past 12 months. Now, the "comeback kid" theory is in effect as Rivian stock has gained 54% over the past year. In theory, if the stock continues to add 50% every year through 2030, then a $50 is an easy target price. That's a highly ambitious projection, though. To be more informed and realistic, we need to delve into Rivian's actual results, so we'll do that right now."

"After performing an inspection of Rivian's third-quarter 2025 results, we'll find that it's a good-news, bad-news situation. The good news is that Rivian's revenue surged 78.3% from $874 million in the year-earlier quarter to $1.558 billion in Q3 2025. On the other hand, Rivian's cost of revenue and operating expenses also grew during that period. Consequently, the company's net loss increased 6% year-over-year, from $1.1 billion to $1.167 billion."

Rivian faces divergent outcomes ranging from a dramatic recovery to market leadership with share price near $50 by 2030 to potential bankruptcy within a year if cash runs out. Five-year performance shows an 80% loss, but the past 12 months produced a 54% gain, implying investor sentiment depends on time frame. Q3 2025 revenue rose 78.3% to $1.558 billion, while cost of revenue and operating expenses also increased, widening net losses to $1.167 billion. Sustaining rapid growth would require continued revenue acceleration, expense control, and sufficient liquidity to avoid financing distress.

Read at 24/7 Wall St.