Where Are We Going?

"Since 10/10, the questions of "was the system over levered" and "did anyone big get liquidated" have weighed on the price of BTC greatly. More will come out regarding the second question posed in the coming months, but it seems there has been less "forced" sell pressure going on in spot markets, especially when looking at Binance CVD in particular. Perpetual futures funding rates remain quite flat on centralized exchanges, but are up over 10% annualized on Hyperliquid and Lighter."

"While Binance is still the biggest game in town by volume for spot and derivatives, the rise of the newer decentralized exchanges focused on perpetual futures have taken the market by storm. Looking at the delta between the CEX's and DEX's in perpetual markets is quite interesting, as we clearly see traders actively taking long positions on-chain first. Hyperliquid and Lighter funding rates are nearly 10 points higher than their centralized counterparts."

Bitcoin near $92k falls short of previously forecast $150k–$400k outcomes and reflects market uncertainty. Since 10/10 concerns about over‑leverage and large liquidations pressured BTC, though forced selling in spot markets appears reduced, notably on Binance CVD. Perpetual futures funding is flat on major centralized exchanges but exceeds 10% annualized on Hyperliquid and Lighter. Decentralized perpetual exchanges have seen rapid adoption, with traders taking on‑chain long positions first and funding rates roughly ten points higher than CEXs. Low sign-up barriers, advanced interfaces, and APIs have made these DEXs leading indicators. Continued blockchain scaling, validator growth, and improved security should normalize these marketplaces.

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