When It Comes to Palantir, the Roar of the Bears Is Too Loud to Ignore

"Q1 2026 revenue ripped 85% year-over-year to $1.633 billion, U.S. commercial grew 133%, and management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $7.65 to $7.662 billion. CEO Alex Karp called it "the largest ever full-year revenue guidance raise." I get the excitement. I just refuse to pay for it."

"Palantir trades at a trailing P/E of 155, a price-to-sales of 62, and a forward P/E of 97. Even the EV/EBITDA of 160 is in a category usually reserved for pre-revenue biotech. Morningstar's fair value sits at $153, with analyst Mark Giarelli flagging "very high uncertainty" on the addressable market. At around $130 per share, you're paying perfection multiples on a story that's already down 23% year-to-date."

"On March 2, 2026, Peter Thiel disposed of roughly 2 million Class A shares across seven tranches priced between $140.97 and $146.80. CEO Karp himself sold large blocks on February 20, 2026 in the $132 to $135 range. Across 72 recent insider transactions, the net direction is selling. Founders and operators don't dump shares this aggressively when they think the stock is cheap."

"GAAP profitability is being papered over by equity issuance. FY2025 stock-based compensation hit $684 million, while buybacks totaled just $74.985 million. That is net dilution, and it gets worse the longer the stock stays elevated."

Palantir reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.633 billion, up 85% year over year, with U.S. commercial revenue growing 133%. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $7.65 to $7.662 billion, described as the largest full-year guidance raise. Despite these results, valuation metrics are extremely elevated, including a trailing P/E of 155, price-to-sales of 62, forward P/E of 97, and EV/EBITDA around 160. Fair value estimates are far below the current price, and uncertainty is flagged around the addressable market. Insider transactions show net selling by major holders. Stock-based compensation of $684 million in FY2025 versus $74.985 million in buybacks implies net dilution that can worsen over time.

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