Vanguard's Value ETF May Soon Outperform Your Tech Holdings as "The Great Migration" Accelerates

The Vanguard Value ETF has gained 11% year to date, while the Vanguard Growth ETF has returned 9.4% over the same period. This pattern reflects a rotation toward value as AI enthusiasm fades. The ETF tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index, selecting mega-cap and large-cap companies using book-to-price, forward earnings, dividends, and sales. Returns come from dividends paid by mature cash-generating sectors such as financials, healthcare, industrials, and staples, plus multiple re-rating when growth is priced too expensively. The fund charges a 0.03% fee. Long Treasury yields near 5% reduce the present value of distant cash flows, pressuring growth valuations while supporting value’s near-term cash flows. Over five and ten years, VTV has lagged VUG despite strong recent performance.

"The Vanguard Value ETF ( NYSEARCA:VTV | VTV Price Prediction) is up 11% year to date, a lead that only looks small next to the 9.4% return on the Vanguard Growth ETF ( NYSEARCA:VUG) over the same stretch. That is the actual shape of the so-called Great Rotation so far in 2026. Value is ahead of growth on the year, and VTV has quietly done the work that nobody talks about at dinner parties: owning boring blue-chips while the AI narrative kept stealing the microphone."

"It tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index, which screens mega-cap and large-cap names on book-to-price, forward earnings, dividends, and sales. The return engine is two parts. Dividends come from mature cash-generative businesses (financials, healthcare, industrials, staples), plus multiple re-rating when the market decides it has paid too much for growth. The fee is 0.03% as of April 2026, which is essentially free."

"Start with rates. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.46% now, with the 30-year at 4.99%. Long yields at nearly 5% change the math for any stock whose cash flows sit decades out. Discount a 2045 earnings stream at 5% instead of 2% and the present value collapses, which is why mega-cap growth gets vertigo when the long end runs. VTV's holdings throw off cash now, and that cash competes with Treasuries on something close to equal terms."

"Over five years, VTV returned 71%. VUG returned 103%, dividends reinvested. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( NYSEARCA:SPY) returned 92%. Stretch the window to ten years and the gap widens, with VTV at 222% versus VUG at 436%. An investor who held VTV instead of VUG since 2016 underperformed by roughly two-to-one. That is the cost"

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