Economists estimate that UK exports could decline by more than 2.6% as trade with the US falters, creating a ripple effect that would further strain the global economy. This expected drop in trade due to potential tariffs could lead to an annual decrease of 0.8% in the UK's overall economic output, illustrating the far-reaching impact of trade policy decisions. The CITP researchers warn that these changes could severely affect various sectors of the economy.
Researcher Nicolo Tamberi emphasized the potentiality of tariffs being implemented, stating that 'the possibility of these tariffs is certainly there.' Trump's historical approach to using tariffs as a political tool further complicates matters, creating uncertainty for exporters reliant on US markets.
Former UK ambassador to the US, Lord Darroch, shared a more pessimistic outlook, suggesting, 'I'm a pessimist... Trump did tariffs in his first term on steel and aluminium. He wants to go much bigger this time. He believes in it - it's not a bluff.' This statement highlights the seriousness with which the UK must approach the prospect of increased tariffs.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy pointed out the necessity of emphasizing the value of free trade, stating, 'Hurting your closest allies cannot be in your medium or long-term interests.' His comments reflect the urgent need for the UK to engage in dialogue with the US to protect its trade interests amid looming tariff threats.
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