Trump's proposals to impose tariffs of at least 60 percent on Chinese imports and tariffs of 10-20 percent on all other foreign goods would raise duties to levels not seen since the Great Depression. While Trump slapped tariffs on $380bn of US imports during his first trade war with China, his proposals this time around would cover goods worth 10 times that amount.
A win for Trump would be a hammer blow to the decades-old project of globalisation, which was already under strain amid a growing consensus on both the left and right that the free movement of goods and people has failed ordinary people.
Global economic growth would almost certainly take a hit as consumers in the world's largest economy cut back on purchases of foreign products, particularly if, as is likely, countries imposed retaliatory tariffs on US imports.
Swiss bank UBS has estimated that a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods and a 10 percent universal tariff would reduce global economic growth by one percentage point in 2026.
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