Trump Holds the Line on Iran: No Sanctions Relief as Oil Slides Below $89

Trump stated he would hold the line on Iran sanctions, saying there would be no easing and no money, while asserting that Iran would provide what it has to provide or the situation would be handled forcefully. He referenced the Strait of Hormuz as international waters that no one controls, with oversight tied to negotiations. Oil markets interpreted the hardline stance as de-escalation, pushing West Texas Intermediate below $89 per barrel to a six-week low. Trading activity on Polymarket reflected expectations of sanction relief by May 31 and potential unfreezing of assets, with related contracts trading at low probabilities. Exxon Mobil reported higher adjusted earnings despite Middle East disruption losses and derivative timing effects, while Chevron reported strong adjusted earnings and production growth tied to acquisitions and record U.S. output.

"“No we're not talking about easing of sanctions, or giving them money, no sanctions no money, no nothing, they are starting to give us what they have to give us, if they do, that is great if they won't, man on my left will finish them off,” with the Secretary of Defense seated beside him, he addressed the Strait of Hormuz, where 35% of global oil flows and through which Iran has tried to impose transit tolls: “It is international waters, no one controls it, we'll watch over it, but no one will control it that is part of the negotiations that we have.”"

"Meanwhile, oil markets read that as de-escalation. West Texas Intermediate settled below $89 per barrel, a six-week low, even as the hardline stance suggests the risk premium is being unwound prematurely. Polymarket traders agree with the skeptics: the “Trump agrees to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31” contract trades at $0.15, with the asset-unfreeze contract at $0.14 and the Strait of Hormuz transit-fees contract at roughly $0.0155. April's identical contracts all resolved NO."

"Exxon Mobil absorbed the disruption head-on. Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS came in at $1.16 versus $1.01 expected, but reported net income fell to $4.18 billion after $706 million in Middle East supply-disruption losses and $3.88 billion in unfavorable mark-to-market derivative timing. Underlying earnings rose to $8.77 billion. CEO Darren Woods, per the company's Q1 8-K, called the quarter a stress test the company passed. Production hit 4.6 million boe/d with Guyana above 900,000 gross bpd."

"Chevron posted adjusted EPS of $1.41 versus $0.97, with production up 15% to 3,858 MBOED on the Hess acquisition and record US output above 2 million bpd. Curtailments i"

Read at 24/7 Wall St.