"In Lee's opinion, gold is 'probably a demographic story,' noting Fundstrat does a lot of demographic research, and it's found 'preferences skip a generation.' For instance, every 50 years you get another peak in RV, or recreation vehicle, sales. Noting the peak in RV sales during the pandemic, he said the last time sales were so strong was during the 1950s heyday of I Love Lucy."
"Lee said gold was comparable in size to the stock market, with data backing him up, gold having a total 'above ground' valuation of $29 trillion to $34 trillion, which compares to the Magnificent 7's roughly $21 trillion market cap. 'By the way,' he added, 'it all fits in a swimming pool, all the gold in the world.'"
"Not only is gold a 'Lindy effect' asset, Lee said, but it's also a 'demographic' story, in Lee's opinion, that has to do with nostalgia. All that, and he sees a 'black swan' tail risk that involves Musk, the world's richest man, discovering a new asteroid and becoming the world's central banker."
Gold is framed as a Lindy effect asset and a demographic investment tied to nostalgia. Demographic research indicates preferences can skip a generation, producing roughly 50-year cycles in consumer behavior such as RV sales. Older cohorts tend to favor gold while younger cohorts tilt toward hedge funds and alternatives. Above-ground gold is estimated at $29 trillion to $34 trillion, comparable to major equity concentrations like the Magnificent 7. The physical quantity of mined gold is small enough to fit in a swimming pool. An extreme tail risk imagines a tech billionaire discovering an asteroid and exerting outsized monetary influence.
Read at Fortune
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