"U.S. consumer confidence collapsed to 84.5-its lowest level since 2014, below even pandemic-era lows, the Conference Board recently reported. The Expectations Index fell to 65.1, well under the 80 threshold that historically signals recession. Across income levels, Americans earning under $15,000 remain the least optimistic of any group. Some look at the U.S. economy today and see resilience: markets near highs, unemployment steady, spending holding up. Others see something darker: affordability pressure, a stagnant labor market, and a growing sense that the system is rigged."
"200% of the Federal Poverty Level. Another 46 million people live in the Elite Economy earning $100,000 or more. The country is living in a K-shaped economy: two diverging roads, where outcomes for one group accelerate upward while outcomes for another flatten - or quietly deteriorate. The top half is compounding: stable employment, rising asset values, and the confidence that comes from having options."
U.S. consumer confidence dropped to 84.5, the lowest since 2014, with expectations falling to 65.1—below the historical recession threshold. The economy is bifurcated into a Desperation Economy of roughly 87 million people and an Elite Economy of about 46 million earning $100,000 or more. The top half experiences compounding benefits from stable jobs and rising asset values. The bottom half faces acute affordability pressures, fragile cash flow, rising credit stress, and waning confidence that effort leads to progress. That bottom segment is entering a Quiet Riot characterized by short-term survival choices and abandoned long-term planning.
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