"Companies are not hiring in the face of all of these headwinds and uncertainty. And even healthcare is starting to slow down. The U.S. economy has now lost jobs on net since April 2025. From last May through last month, total payroll change stands at -19,000."
"A San Francisco Fed analysis published in January found that education and health services had driven almost all sustained job growth in 2025, while every other major sector sat flat or declined. In February, it seems, that narrow base itself has evaporated."
"We have a labor market so soft that it cannot withstand a strike of -31k physicians in health care, because no one else is hiring. When the economy has a broad-based expansion, a temporary disruption in one sector gets absorbed easily. In an economy where one industry carries the weight, it shows up as a national payroll decline."
The U.S. labor market experienced a significant contraction in February, losing 92,000 jobs against expectations for a 60,000 gain. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, and December's data was revised downward, indicating payroll declines in two of the last three months. Job losses have accumulated since April 2025, with net payroll changes of -19,000 from May through February. Healthcare, which had been the primary driver of job growth, shed 28,000 positions due to a Kaiser strike, reversing January's gain of 77,000. Federal government employment declined by 10,000, continuing a contraction of 330,000 positions since October 2024. Information, transportation, and warehousing sectors also experienced losses. Private-sector payrolls fell 86,000, reflecting broad-based weakness across the economy.
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