"As we hit the halfway mark in December, crypto continues its rangebound trading, disappointing many who expected a Santa Rally going into the end of the year. Leading crypto BTC has repeatedly tested the mid $90k levels, only to face rejection and scurry back down the charts. After 3 red days in a row, BTC continues its march downwards on Monday morning, dropping down below $87k."
"We have an interesting and packed week in macro, with NFP tomorrow, CPI on Thursday, some talks from Fed officials (Waller on Wednesday), and the BOJ Thursday night. With inflation above the Fed's current level of 2%, a surprise to the downside in CPI combined with a weak jobs report could lead the market to expect more rate cuts. BTC's continued chop (along with nearly every other major crypto) will need several positive macro events to break out of this pattern,"
"Perpetual futures funding rates are quite flat across the board on centralized exchanges for BTC, showing rates of around 3% annualized. DEX's are seeing higher funding rates, around 11% annualized on Hyperliquid for example. This difference in rates will continue to be exploited by arbitrage traders, and BTC will continue its range in these types of market conditions. Options markets paint a similar picture, with trading occurring right around the money on both puts and calls for the year end expiry on Deribit of 26DEC25."
Bitcoin remains rangebound, repeatedly testing mid-$90k resistance and dropping below $87k after three consecutive down days as momentum approaches downside lows. The macro calendar is busy with NFP, CPI, Fed commentary (Waller), and the BOJ, where downside CPI surprises combined with weak jobs could raise expectations for more rate cuts. Perpetual futures funding on centralized exchanges is flat around 3% annualized, while DEX funding can reach about 11% on platforms like Hyperliquid, creating arbitrage opportunities. Options flow sits roughly at-the-money for the 26DEC25 expiry, and trading volume is expected to decline into the holiday period.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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