"Retail sales growth is expected to slow across the US, UK and major European economies in 2026 as consumers continue to feel financial pressure and discretionary spending remains subdued, according to new forecasts from Bain & Company. In its 2026 Global Retail Sales Outlook, Bain said macroeconomic uncertainty, cost-of-living pressures and cautious shopper behaviour would weigh on growth in the year ahead, even as inflation eases in most markets."
"Bain forecasts US retail sales growth of 3.5 per cent year on year in 2026, taking the market to $5.3 trillion. That represents a slowdown from estimated growth of 4.0 per cent in 2025, with underlying volume gains expected to remain modest as inflation hovers between 2.6 per cent and 3.0 per cent. The consultancy said mounting consumer strain, rising unemployment and slowing labour supply growth were eroding confidence."
Retail sales growth is projected to slow in 2026 across the US, UK and major European economies due to macroeconomic uncertainty, cost-of-living pressures and cautious shopper behaviour. US retail sales are expected to rise about 3.5% to $5.3 trillion in 2026, down from an estimated 4.0% in 2025, with modest volume gains as inflation hovers near 2.6–3.0%. Consumer confidence is weakening amid mounting strain, rising unemployment and slower labour supply. Shoppers are increasingly trading down to lower-priced and private-label products, creating a flight to value that could limit nominal sales growth. UK retail sales are projected to grow roughly 2%, with flat food volumes and slightly negative non-food volumes.
Read at Business Matters
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