"Newmont's ( NYSE: NEM) Q4 report can be seen as a test of whether record gold prices could drive margin expansion despite lower production volumes. The company delivered adjusted EPS of $2.52, crushing the $1.97 consensus by 27.9%. Shares traded at $125.40, essentially flat, after the report. The muted reaction suggests investors are digesting a complex story: stellar cash generation offset by declining 2026 production guidance. The earnings beat came entirely from commodity prices, not operational outperformance."
"Newmont realized $4,216 per ounce in Q4, up $1,573 year-over-year. That 59.5% price surge more than compensated for attributable production of 1,453 thousand ounces, down 23.4% from 1,899 thousand ounces in Q4 2024. Revenue climbed 20.6% to $6.82 billion, but the real story was free cash flow: $2.8 billion in the quarter and $7.3 billion for the full year, up 71.9% year-over-year."
"All-in sustaining costs held at $1,302 per ounce in Q4, giving Newmont a roughly $2,914 per ounce margin at current prices. That explains why the company generated record cash despite producing less gold. Management used the windfall to slash $3.4 billion in debt and return $3.4 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. The balance sheet now shows a $2.1 billion net cash position, a dramatic reversal from prior leverage concerns."
Newmont's Q4 performance was propelled by substantially higher realized gold prices rather than operational gains, producing an adjusted EPS of $2.52 that beat expectations. Realized price rose to $4,216 per ounce while attributable production declined 23.4% to 1,453 thousand ounces, lifting revenue to $6.82 billion. Free cash flow reached $2.8 billion in the quarter and $7.3 billion for the year, enabling $3.4 billion of debt reduction and $3.4 billion returned to shareholders. All-in sustaining costs were $1,302 per ounce in Q4, yielding large per-ounce margins, but 2026 guidance calls for lower volumes and higher unit costs that could pressure margins if gold prices retreat.
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