Monday.com shares declined amid concerns that falling SEO-driven traffic and rising marketing costs could create self-serve growth headwinds. Bank of America Securities downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and cut the price target from $240 to $205 after analyzing web traffic trends. SEO-driven visits fell 23.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025 and worsened to 25.3% in July, likely tied to Google’s rollout of AI Overviews. Less than 30% of signups originate from Google, leading to a Similarweb-based framework to estimate impact. The downgrade included trimmed 2026 revenue estimates and a warning of potential ARR drag into 2026.
Bullock downgraded the stock after reviewing web traffic trends by channel. He noted that SEO-driven visits fell 23.5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, with the decline worsening to 25.3% in July, likely due to Google's broader rollout of AI Overviews. Since less than 30% of signups come from Google, he built a framework using Similarweb data to gauge growth impact.
Bullock said that while shares are already down 30% since the second quarter earnings, ongoing fundamental challenges and AI-driven search risks make risk/reward balanced. The analyst is not calling for a 2025 revenue guide miss but trimmed 2026 revenue estimates and cut his price target to $205 from $240. Bullock warned that if July 2025 traffic declines persist, Monday.com could see meaningful self-serve headwinds in the second half of 2025 and 2026.
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