Larry Kudlow: The 'Trumpian Economy' Is Booming Despite the Gas Price Noise

Real GDP growth estimates and price measures support a view of a stronger economy, with Atlanta Fed nowcasting at 4.3% for the second quarter and core goods prices rising only 1.1% excluding food and energy. Household wealth is around 180 trillion dollars and profits are accelerating, with BEA corporate profits reaching $4,392.5 billion in Q1 2026, up 12% year over year for a fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration. Gasoline forecasts remain a meaningful headwind, with EIA projecting Brent at $95 per barrel in 2026 and retail gasoline at $3.88 per gallon. GE Aerospace shows demand strength, posting Q1 2026 orders of $23.0 billion, up 87% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $1.86, while guidance trends toward the upper end of its full-year range.

"“The Trumpian economy is absolutely booming as is the stock market,” he said, listing the receipts: an Atlanta Fed nowcast pointing to 4.3% real GDP growth in the second quarter, core goods prices up only 1.1% excluding food and energy, household wealth around 180 trillion dollars, and profits soaring 15% or better. The pump price, in Kudlow's telling, is noise around a much louder signal."

"The macro data mostly cooperates. BEA corporate profits hit $4,392.5 billion in Q1 2026, up 12% year over year, the fourth straight quarter of acceleration. Polymarket traders give an 80.5% probability that the U.S. avoids recession by year end 2026, a figure that has drifted down five points over the past month as Q2 data firms up. Q1 real GDP came in softer at 1.6%, dragged by an import surge, but the underlying components Kudlow cares about, gross private investment up 7.0% and government spending recovering, are where the “Trumpian” story lives."

"The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook now forecasts Brent crude averaging $95 per barrel in 2026 and retail gasoline averaging $3.88 per gallon. That is not nothing for households or for companies that burn jet fuel for a living. The market is asking whether those companies can grow through it."

"GE Aerospace ( NYSE:GE | GE Price Prediction) put up a quarter strong enough to let a CEO maintain guidance with a smile. Q1 2026 orders hit $23.0 billion, up 87% year over year, with commercial wins including 300+ LEAP-1A engines for American Airlines, 300 GEnx for United, and 60 GEnx for Delta. Adjusted EPS of $1.86 beat the $1.60 consensus, and management is trending toward the high end of its $7.10 to $7.40 full-year adjusted EPS range. The earnings release flags elevated Brent through Q3"

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