"After Donald Trump was elected the 45th President in November 2016, the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) small business optimism index skyrocketed. It was truly a reflection of 'animal spirits' coming to life and this behavior is likely to be repeated," Goldman Sachs' Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin wrote in a November 18 client note.
"Small business owners lean Republican," said Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a November 12 note. Numbers from the National Federation of Independent Businesses' November survey aren't in yet, but the 2016 election period saw a substantial shift in small-business optimism.
The term vibecession, a play on the word recession coined by content creator Kyla Scanlon, has been used to describe how people have felt about the economy for the last few years. While the National Bureau of Economic Research hasn't declared an official recession, inflation and a floundering job market have left consumers feeling downcast about the economy.
Optimism surged post-2016 election, with small businesses planning to hire more employees. Improved labor market conditions could enhance consumer sentiment and boost wages.
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