Is Bitcoin shifting to a 2-year cycle?

"For more than a decade, Bitcoin investors have relied on the familiar four-year cycle to navigate bull runs, capitulations and market shifts driven by halving events. In 2025, that long-standing roadmap is beginning to look outdated - and analysts are seeking a new framework to understand where Bitcoin ( BTC) is headed next. Some argue that institutional capital is reshaping the market. Others highlight the weakening impact of the halving, the rise of AI as a competing investment frontier, or global liquidity trends that no longer line up with old patterns. Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: Bitcoin doesn't seem to be moving like it used to."

"Park argues that Bitcoin's market structure has undergone a fundamental shift as institutional flows operate under different incentives than those of retail investors. At the core of Park's argument is a provocative idea: Shorter cycles could dramatically reshape how investors think about timing, volatility and Bitcoin's potential path through 2026. Park also touches on why some players prefer short-term weakness, how liquidity patterns intersect with the new cycle and what this shift could mean for the next major move."

For more than a decade, Bitcoin investors relied on a four-year cycle driven by halving events to navigate bull runs, capitulations and market shifts. In 2025, that long-standing roadmap appears to be breaking down as price action and liquidity no longer align with historical halving patterns. Institutional capital, a waning halving impact, competition from AI-related investment flows, and global liquidity shifts are cited as drivers of the change. An alternative framework proposes that Bitcoin is transitioning into a shorter, two-year cycle as institutional flows with different incentives reshape market structure. Shorter cycles could alter approaches to timing, volatility management and projected paths through 2026. Evolving liquidity patterns and preferences for short-term weakness among some players may influence when and how the next major move unfolds.

Read at Cointelegraph