Intel shares have risen sharply, driven by Intel Foundry wins, NVIDIA-related capital, and improved execution. Data Center and AI revenue increased 22% year over year to $5.05B, while Intel Foundry revenue rose 16% to $5.42B. Despite the rally, trailing EPS remains negative at -$0.60, and Intel Foundry recorded a $2.51B operating loss in Q4 2025. Q1 included a $4.07B Mobileye goodwill impairment, and quarterly earnings growth fell 71.7% year over year. Wall Street targets average $87.86 with limited bullish coverage, while base, optimistic, and bearish targets are $101.88, $115.12, and $76.08. Reaching $200 would require major gains and extreme forward P/E assumptions, depending on rapid forward EPS improvement.
"Reaching $200 from today's price of $119.84 requires a gain of 66.9%. Spread over roughly two and a half years, that's within the volatility envelope a 2.19 beta name produces. The multiple math is uncomfortable. With forward EPS of $0.60, $200 implies a forward P/E of 333x. Our base case of $101.88 already implies 210x, meaning $200 requires roughly 123x additional multiple expansion on today's forward number."
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