Gold has been consolidating in a tight range between $2,480 and $2,530, with bullish sentiment maintaining a slight advantage. This reflects the market's ongoing evaluation of economic growth in the US and China.
The upcoming non-farm payroll report could be the key to gold's next significant move. If job growth comes in under 100,000 and the unemployment rate holds at 4.3%, I expect the market to increasingly lean toward a 50bp rate cut.
China's economic challenges are also weighing heavily on global markets. The property sector continues to struggle, with home sales from the top 100 developers down nearly 30% in August.
Underlying economic fragility is evident. Core PCE inflation is cooling, the manufacturing sector has contracted for five straight months, and JOLTS job openings have sharply declined.
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