"Barclays' bearish thesis centers on competitive and structural headwinds. Fee compression is a real concern: Morgan Stanley is launching its Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) with a 0.14% annual fee, undercutting rivals and squeezing exchange-based trading margins."
"Stablecoin transaction volumes hit $33 trillion in 2025, surpassing Visa and Mastercard combined, with B2B payments migrating to direct settlement rails. That shift reduces the transaction volume dependency that drives a significant portion of Coinbase's revenue."
"Coinbase reported full-year 2025 revenue of $7.2 billion, up 9.69% year-over-year, with total trading volume reaching $5.2 trillion, a 156% jump year-over-year. However, Q4 2025 earnings were less flattering, with reported EPS of $0.66 against an estimate of $1.05."
Coinbase Global's stock has been rated Underweight by Barclays, with a price target of $140, significantly below its current price of $181. The stock has declined 20% year-to-date, reflecting its close ties to Bitcoin's performance. Barclays cites competitive pressures, such as fee compression from new entrants like Morgan Stanley, and a shift in transaction volumes towards stablecoins as key concerns. Despite reporting a revenue increase to $7.2 billion in 2025, Coinbase's earnings missed expectations, raising caution among investors.
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