"The report, authored by VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush, models BTC reaching $2.9 million per coin by 2050 under a base-case scenario. This represents a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from today's prices. The model assumes BTC captures 5-10% of global trade and becomes a reserve asset making up 2.5% of central bank balance sheets."
"VanEck recommends a 1-3% allocation for most diversified portfolios. For higher risk-tolerant investors, allocations up to 20% historically optimize returns, according to their analysis. VanEck argues that BTC's role is becoming more than speculative. It could function as a reserve asset and hedge against monetary debasement, particularly as developed markets face high sovereign debt. "The risk of zero exposure to the most established non-sovereign reserve asset may now exceed the volatility risk of the position itself," the report notes."
Models project Bitcoin reaching $2.9 million by 2050 in a base-case (15% CAGR), assuming 5–10% capture of global trade and 2.5% of central bank balance sheets. A conservative scenario yields roughly $130,000 by 2050 (2% CAGR), while a hyper-bitcoinization outcome could reach $53.4 million (29% CAGR) if BTC captures 20% of global trade and 10% of domestic GDP. Bitcoin functions as a strategic, low-correlation asset for institutional portfolios. Typical recommended allocations are 1–3% for diversified investors, with allocations up to 20% historically optimizing returns for higher risk-tolerant investors. Modeled annualized volatility ranges 40–70%, while recent realized volatility reached about 27%; futures leverage is cited as a driver of short-term price swings. It could serve as a reserve asset and hedge against monetary debasement amid high sovereign debt.
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