Ben Carlson on Why You Should Stop Trying to Time the Market: 'You Have to Be Right Twice'

"Carlson suggests focusing on your time horizon, not headline. "When are you going to need the money? I think that is the one big determinant of risk for most people," he said. He recalls his 2008 experience as a "naive 20-year-old" who kept funding his 401(k) while a colleague fled to a stable value fund."

Market timing can seem straightforward, but it requires selling before a decline and buying back at the bottom. Many investors fail the second decision and remain out of the market for years. During the 2008 crisis, investors who sold and stayed in cash often missed subsequent gains, since the S&P 500 ETF continued rising substantially through the following years. Overattention to news is presented as a major modern risk, driven by constant alerts and social media headlines. Focusing on personal time horizon is suggested as the key determinant of risk. Anxiety about rates, inflation, or geopolitics should be weighed against when money is actually needed.

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