Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system forecasts a difficult season for the Boston Red Sox in 2025, predicting they will win just 78 games and finish last in the AL East. This projection causes concern, given the system's historical accuracy, especially in recent seasons. While the projections have been closer to the actual outcomes compared to previous years, the system is known to struggle with certain aspects, raising questions about possible betting strategies amidst this gloomy outlook regarding the team in the coming season.
The PECOTA projection for the Red Sox in 2025 predicts a challenging season, with just 78 wins and a last-place finish in the AL East.
Looking at past seasons, PECOTA has had mixed success with its projections for the Red Sox, showing accuracy in recent years but notable misses in others.
Comparing PECOTA's performance against the Red Sox's Pythagorean wins reveals that the projections tend to be more accurate when factoring in run differential.
The current Vegas over/under for the Red Sox is at 84.5, raising questions about the reliability of PECOTA's lower win projection.
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