"Aroldis Chapman has, unfortunately, had an incredible comeback season in 2025, I'll admit it. Even as someone who never has - and never will - want him on my team, his dominance in the ninth this year has truly been a sight to behold. While it's morally reprehensible to truly be a "fan" of his at this point in his tumultuous MLB journey, his success has certainly been conducive to Boston's playoff-hopeful performance thus far in 2025."
"There is no question that he's had a fantastic year for any closer out there, but even more so as a 36-year-old thought to be a few years on the decline. And while this change is due to a few improving factors (most notably his fastball location), some of it, as will almost always be the case, is due to luck."
"The ERA luck is minimal when you keep in mind how good his stat line still would be if he pitched to his 1.70 FIP as opposed to his 1.26 ERA, but that's still more variant than you'd expect to see. All of this is to say that he has, without a doubt, been a great closer this year, but has taken some of the bad luck he experienced last season and turned it into a positive this year."
Aroldis Chapman delivered a standout comeback as a 36-year-old closer in 2025, showing dominant ninth-inning performance and helping Boston's playoff push. The hot stretch included an astounding 50-batter hitless streak that recently ended in Sacramento, and a subsequent appearance of the more familiar version of Chapman. Improved fastball location is a major positive driver of the results, while a degree of favorable luck also contributed. ERA sits at 1.26 versus a 1.70 FIP, indicating some variance. Last season featured extreme walk rates and a near 0.80 ERA–xERA gap linked to pitching in front of the Pirates.
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