Kevin Rader, a statistician at Harvard, explains the astronomical improbability of achieving a perfect NCAA basketball bracket, likening it to winning the Powerball consecutively. With no perfect brackets left midway through the tournament, he underscores the challenge, especially with inevitable upsets. Rader points out that while top seeds usually win in the first round, the need to choose a few upsets intelligently is critical for winning office pools. He suggests leveraging information rather than relying solely on chance when making bracket choices.
Typically, you're talking about the perfect bracket of 64 games...the equation is 1 over 2 63, which is some astronomical number, it's in the quintillions.
This year, we're about halfway through the games, and there are no perfect brackets remaining of all the publicly available ones. It's unlikely to happen in anyone's lifetime.
To pick the upsets correctly, use the information you can. At a certain point, it's almost a coin flip, but you should pick chalk when teams are mismatched.
Winning your office pool...depends on how many people are in the pool. You need to discern yourself from your competition.
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