In analyzing NFL draft strategies, Bill Barnwell suggests that while conventionally teams should lean toward trading down, there are valid scenarios for trading up, especially when targeting players who can significantly impact the team. His research indicates that, historically, teams might pay the right price for players after moving up, despite greater risks. The article emphasizes the importance of considering individual team contexts such as roster composition and available draft capital before making any trading decisions during the 2025 NFL draft.
Between 2011 and 2023, in terms of expected value, teams collectively paid about the right price for what they got in return.
It's true that teams that trade up lose more often than they win, but when they're right, the players they land are successful enough to mostly make up for the times when they trade up and whiff.
I argue that most teams should still lean more toward the trading down side of the equation, but each team's roster construction, draft capital and young core also matter in the discussion.
We need to apply more context to come to a conclusion about those moves.
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