"The Cubs have had two separate ten game win streaks and a fifteen-game win streak at home. They also have an incredible 11-5 win-loss record against teams above .500. For reference, the Braves have only played seven such games and have a 4-3 record. A ton of weight can't be put into home and road splits this early in the season, but the Cubs have struggled to a .500 record when playing away from Wrigley."
"Grant Holmes will be taking the mound for the Braves today against Colin Rea. The Braves fortune with their rotation is slowing down outside of Strider coming back, and Grant Holmes is one of the reasons. Even though the Braves are 4-1 in his last five starts, Holmes has struggled to a 5.13 ERA and 5.36 FIP. During that time, he has surrendered five HRs and walked twelve in only 26.1 innings pitched. His saving grace is that he has still been able to produce groundballs at a high clip producing forty-one in that time span."
"The Braves' bread and butter has been hitting the ball hard. They have the third best barrel percentage in MLB while also having the third highest number of batted ball events. It just so happens that Rea struggles in the barrel percentage arena. He is in the bottom 43.0 percent of MLB and in the lowest 14.0 percent of hard-hit percentage. If the Braves can make solid contact, they have a legitimate chance to do some damage."
"Colin Rea has seen a slightly better path than Holmes in his past five appearances. In that time, he had a 4.39 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and walked nine and struck out twenty-five while giving up three HRs. Only two Cubs players have ever faced Holmes before. Alex Bregman has two at-bats and is hitless. Michael Conforto has five at-bats and has a .600 average and 1.550 OPS."
The Atlanta Braves host the Chicago Cubs after a successful West Coast series win over the Dodgers. The Cubs enter with multiple win streaks, strong home performance, and an 11-5 record versus teams above .500, while the Braves have fewer such games and a 4-3 mark. Grant Holmes starts for Atlanta against Colin Rea. Holmes has a 4-1 run in recent starts but posts a 5.13 ERA and 5.36 FIP, with five home runs allowed and twelve walks in 26.1 innings, offset by frequent groundballs. Rea has a 4.39 ERA and 3.72 FIP recently. Atlanta’s offense ranks near the top in barrel percentage and batted-ball events, and Rea ranks poorly in barrel and hard-hit rates, creating a favorable matchup for solid contact.
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