Atlanta can win the series in Cincinnati by winning Saturday night and then has a chance for another Sunday sweep. Martin Perez has near-career-best results through 46.2 innings, posting strikeout and walk rates near career highs, with 3.80 xFIP and 3.83 FIP at age 35. He uses a five-pitch mix of relatively slow, well-moving offerings to hold down the fifth-starter role, though Great American Ball Park is top-5 offense-friendly and especially vulnerable to home runs. Brady Singer starts for Cincinnati with a 6.52 FIP and 4.46 xFIP over 46.0 innings, plus a career-worst xFIP profile tied to nearly a full MPH drop in fastball velocity and a career-low 6.65 strikeouts per nine. Singer’s sinker and slider usage dominates, with a sweeper, cutter, and four-seamer added, and his main strength this year is limiting walks, so Atlanta should attack strike-zone pitches, particularly sinkers, to generate success in the small ballpark. First pitch is 7:15 pm EDT on Saturday, May 30, at Great American Ball Park.
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