"That move in question is the Braves parting ways with Paul Davis, who had been the team's director of pitching development since 2020. Davis was there for the rise of pitchers like Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Hurston Waldrep among others who have already established themselves in the big leagues, and the likes of JR Ritchie, Didier Fuentes, Jhancarlos Lara, and Owen Murphy who are now right there or just on the doorstep."
"How big of an impact is this move having? Well let's take a look at the ERA's of the Braves full season affiliates for this year against the last few years to give you a better idea. Note that the FCL isn't being mentioned due to the small sample size, and the DSL is yet to begin their season. 2021 was a team 3.72 ERA, 2022 was a 4.37 ERA, 2023 was 4.95, 2024 was 4.33, and 2025 was 4.07."
"This year the ERA is 4.33 through 45 games. Note this is probably the level least effected, as a lot of these guys are more veterans than true prospects. 2025 had a 3.92 ERA, and is as far as we will go back here as the team was in Mississippi before 2025, and different park factors are at play. This year the ERA is 5.60 through 38 games, or almost 2 full runs higher than last year."
"2021 was a 3.97 ERA, as was 2022. In 2023 it was 4.09, followed by 3.47 in 2024. Last year it was 3.72. Through 39 games it is 4.82 this year, more than a full run higher than two of the five previous years and almost a full run higher than two more. 2021 had a 5.11 ERA, which went down to 4.52 in 2022. In 2023 it was 4.41, then 4.04 in 2024. Last year it was at 3.70. Through 39 games it is 4.65 this year, which is quite a bit higher than four of the five years we have looked at."
Paul Davis left the Atlanta Braves after serving as director of pitching development since 2020. His tenure included the development of pitchers who reached the major leagues, along with prospects who are now in the system or near the majors. The impact is evaluated through full-season affiliate ERA comparisons across recent years. Some affiliates show modest increases, while others show large jumps. One affiliate’s ERA rises to 5.60 through 38 games, nearly two full runs higher than the prior year. Other affiliates also trend upward, with ERAs through 39 games reaching 4.82 and 4.65, both notably higher than most previous-year marks. The analysis excludes FCL and DSL due to sample size and season timing.
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