Braves dig for another series win as Bryce Elder chugs along

"Elder got things started on the right foot this year with an altered pitch mix and augmented slider, with three good outings in his first four tries. His collective line in that span (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) was 19/68/84. He then kinda-sorta regressed back to what he was before this season - not awful or anything, but this was the downside of the mechanical inconsistency that's plagued him for two-and-a-half seasons now. In his next three outings, his line was 79/88/111, with his proverbial bacon getting saved by a low HR/FB rate."

"His last two starts, though, have been the positive end of being inconsistent: 38/78/76, with no HR/FB bacon-saving needed. In those most recent two outings, Elder morphed into more of a three-true-outcomes guy; his combined strikeout and walk tally in each went into double digits, the first times that's happened this season, and something that only happened twice last season. Elder is no longer a groundball guy, not really, as his grounder rate has dipped below league average at this point."

"That's not surprising given that his four-seamer has actually jumped ahead of his sinker in usage at this point. Meanwhile, his slider's now-exaggerated downward break has made it a more effective swing-and-miss pitch while shaving off some of the "just rolled over it" contact he used to get. All in all, Elder's line on the season is 44/78/92, which is certainly better than his career 101/103/100 line, but you can see that HR/FB is having a much bigger impact on his season than his improvements in and of themselves."

"He leads the Braves' staff in fWAR (1.3, to Chris Sale's 1.2). Among the 147 starters with the most innings in MLB this season, his fWAR ranks 20th, his ERA- ranks eighth, his FIP- ranks 29th, and his xFIP- ranks 50th. Quite a turnaround from his past performance in many ways."

Bryce Elder began the season with an altered pitch mix and an augmented slider, producing three strong outings in his first four starts. His early performance metrics were excellent, then he regressed in his next three outings, though low HR/FB helped limit damage. His last two starts showed the positive side of his inconsistency, with improved run prevention and no reliance on HR/FB suppression. In those starts, he became more of a three-true-outcomes pitcher, posting double-digit strikeouts plus walks and reducing his ground-ball rate below league average. His four-seamer usage increased over his sinker, and his slider’s sharper break improved swing-and-miss results while reducing weak contact. Overall, his season line improved versus his career, and he leads the Braves’ staff in fWAR, ranking well across several pitching metrics.

Read at Battery Power