"We find that since the widespread adoption of generative AI, early-career workers (ages 22-25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment even after controlling for firm-level shocks,"
"In contrast, employment for workers in less exposed fields and more experienced workers in the same occupations has remained stable or continued to grow."
"In contrast, workers aged 22 to 25 have experienced a 6% decline in employment from late 2022 to July 2025 in the most AI-exposed occupations, compared to a 6-9% increase for older workers."
"AI replaces "book learning" but is less able to replace tacit knowledge - "the idiosyncratic tips and tricks that accumulate with experience.""
Since widespread adoption of generative AI, employment for early-career workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations has fallen roughly 13% relative to controls. Overall employment continues to grow, but jobs for young workers have stalled since 2022. In less AI-exposed occupations, young workers saw comparable employment growth to older workers. From late 2022 to July 2025, workers aged 22–25 experienced a 6% employment decline in the most exposed occupations, while older workers saw 6–9% increases. AI appears to substitute for "book learning" but struggles to replace tacit knowledge and organization that accumulates with experience, making older workers harder to replace.
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