Payroll records through July 2025 show that AI deployment since 2022 corresponds with stagnating employment growth for younger workers. Workers aged 22–25 experienced the largest losses, with overall employment down 12 percentage points and software engineer roles for that cohort falling nearly 20% from 2022 peaks. Roles most exposed to AI automation — software development, customer service, marketing, and sales — saw sharper entry-level declines. Older workers continued to see job growth. AI appears to replace codified, book-learning knowledge from formal education more readily than tacit, experience-based knowledge. Some predictions foresee larger cuts to entry-level jobs in the near term.
Entry-level software workers are feeling the brunt of the AI boom, according to the latest findings from three Stanford economists. A new paper evaluating AI's effects on the workforce tracked millions of workers' payroll records through July 2025 to offer a real-time view of labor market fluctuations. Researchers found that employment growth for younger workers has remained stagnant since 2022, when AI's deployment began.
Workers ages 22 to 25 see the steepest declines in employment -- by 12 points, to be exact -- especially in fields that are the most "AI-exposed" or where AI automates tasks, like software development or customer service. Software engineer jobs for workers aged 22 through 25 declined nearly 20% in 2025 compared to their peak in 2022. Marketing managers and sales roles see a similar decline, but with smaller magnitudes.
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